A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
